And looking at the next six months with Obama’s job numbers of 188,000 to 327,000 per month, the gap should only increase and cross 1 million. However, the way it is calculated distorts reality (as it did in the June quarter’s downturn) so don’t get too excited over it.

Our Recovery Tracker fell for the third time in five weeks in the week ended July 10. in Industrial Engineering from Stanford University and a Postgraduate Diploma in Economics from the University of Sussex, England. The third chart portraying the K-shaped recovery comes from a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper in August. There is even a L-shaped recovery, which is probably the longest of all of these since it means the economy doesn’t get back to its trend line and is permanently damaged. The Forbes business model consists of a paid contributor network making money per article based on traffic benchmarks. I cover technology companies, worldwide economies and the stock market. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. Prior to becoming an equity analyst, I spent 16 years at IBM in a variety of sales and manufacturing positions.

As can be seen in many of them the economy was trending with positive results from President Obama’s term until the coronavirus hit. The chart below from Visual Capitalist helps to depict them. It is more appropriate to look at the deficits and debt offset by at least a year, if not two, to allow a new President time to implement their programs. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. From his election and inauguration dates the S&P 500 has increased by 53% and 47%, respectively. Before joining Atlantic Trust I was the Internet Security Software analyst for Smith Barney (where I authored the most comprehensive industry report “Internet Security Software: The Ultimate Internet Infrastructure”) and an Enterprise Server Hardware analyst at Salomon Brothers. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the economy grew 33.1% in the September quarter. The elections are five days away and the first estimate for September quarter’s GDP was released Thursday morning, showing growth of 33.1%. You may opt-out by. I have a B.S. In Obama’s first year dealing with the Great Recession the deficit was 9.8% of GDP. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. There has been a lot of discussion about what type of recovery the economy is going through.
Jones is technically correct but let’s put his claims in context. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images), EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change. Or to give an impossible hypothetical to illustrate this point further; if the Trump economy were to be at the point where every single person was employed, nobody needed to change jobs, and there was no population growth, there would be zero jobs added per month, but that wouldn’t be reflective of economic weakness (quite the opposite). As can be seen in the graph below workers in the bottom quartile (people making below $27,000 per year) have seen their employment drop by almost 20% while less than 1% of those making over $60,000 per year have lost jobs. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience.

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. (NationalSentinel) Writing in Forbes earlier this month, Chuck Jones, who covers technology, the global economy and the stock market as a contributor, made somewhat of a controversial claim: Though POTUS Donald Trump is earning high praise for his jobs-friendly economic policies, President Obama actually added more jobs to the economy than the current commander-in-chief. Female workers suffered most heavily in this economy, as work in traditionally feminine fields, like education and medicine, declined during the era. This helps to remove the impact from a larger economy and the natural increase in financial numbers. By Chuck Jones — Container ship getty President Trump campaigned on reducing if not eliminating the U.S. trade deficit. The research by economists Lawrence Katz of Harvard University and Alan Krueger at Princeton University shows that the proportion of workers throughout the U.S., during the Obama era, who were working in these kinds of temporary jobs, increased from 10.7% of the population to 15.8%. Before we get into the numbers lets address the argument that Covid-19 is the reason that this year’s deficit is so large. These periods were after the Great Recession and before the pandemic impact. Since POTUS Trump took office, the unemployment rate has hovered around 4 percent and even below that, leading economists to note that the country is now essentially at full employment.
I provide independent research of technology companies and was previously one of two analysts that determined the technology holdings for Atlantic Trust (Invesco's high net worth group), a firm with $15 billion under management. Learn more about Chuck Jones, read, fact-check and rate their latest articles. During Obama’s last three years the total deficits were $1.5 trillion vs. Trump’s $2.4 trillion. In Trump’s first three years the deficit increased from $585 billion in fiscal 2016 to $984 billion in fiscal 2019, up 68%, for a total of $2.4 trillion. And the pre-pandemic deficit would have been larger than Obama’s post-Great Recession deficits. However, even before Covid-19 hit the economy the chart below goes back to 1930 and shows that this is far from the truth. ... FORBES.COM – While President Obama inherited an economy in free fall, President Trump was handed one that was doing well. This Index is worthwhile to keep an eye on to see if the improvement can get back on track or if it also stalls. Trump’s best GDP growth year was 3.0% in 2018 and prior to him there had been 48 years with higher growth rates. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Note that back in January this year the total difference was only 194,000, which means over the past five months it has increased by 616,000.

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